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Xerez - Cordoba (2011-02-19)

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Xerez CD is placed in 6th spot (38 points, 11W – 5D – 8L) in the Spanish Segunda. Xerez CD is doing a good season so far. I have to admit that I didn’t trust on them and their coach, but their numbers are much better than I thought. The team was totally new. Javier Lopez was the responsible to build a team to hold this category at the end of the season, but the team is working better and they can have one chance to reach the play-off promotion at least. Javier Lopez (coach) was looking for a good starting eleven and he wanted to fix the team to be more solid in a tough category as Spanish Segunda and it seems he has found it. Their signings have worked fine. Cordero, Jose Mari and Capi have given a real boost for the team. I expect something like this: Chema; Juan Luis Redondo, Lomban, Gioda, Raul Llorente; Pablo Redondo, Bruno Herrero, Cordero, Oscar Diaz, Capi, and Jose Mari.

Better than People think

Cordoba CF is placed in 13th spot (29 points, 6W – 11D – 7L) in the Spanish Segunda. They used to be a tough team to beat at home since Lucas Alcaraz manages the team, but this season they concede more goals than previous seasons. They have conceded 42 goals. They have conceded 3 goals or more in several matches against tough teams as Rayo Vallecano, RC Celta Vigo and Real Betis, but they have also conceded that amount of goals against poor offensive teams as Recreativo Huelva and SD Ponferradina, both at home. Lucas Alcaraz’s teams are usually winning the most of their points at home. When Lucas Alcaraz´s teams play away from home they show defensive performance with dangerous counter-attacks. This year they have important players to play on counters like Jonathan Sesma from Real Valladolid. They will have two absences in this match. Alberto Aguilar (midfielder) is suspended. Jonathan Sesma (offensive winger) won’t be available due to an injury.

Wrong Line

Well, it’s early to place a bet for weekend, but I think these odds on Asian handicap line are totally wrong, at least for me. Why? Ok, I’ll explain. I was expecting +0.25 or +0.5 line on Cordoba CF, but I have found +0.75. I can’t understand. This is a Regional Derby and Cordoba CF usually plays good matches against Xerez CD when they are guests. It’s always difficult to write a great preview about a match which will be played in 4 days, because maybe there will be information which I can’t write on these lines, but I can write some reasons to catch these odds. I expect a tight match and a tough match for Xerez CD. Xerez CD is a perfect team to be on them when they usually play away from home when they are underdogs and we can take some excellent odds, but I don’t recommend take them when they are clear favorites and they play at home. Why? Because they are a team which has a lot of problems to take the control and create clear goal chances when they have to break strong defenses. Well, this match will be tough for Xerez CD. Coach Alcaraz will plan a tight game and Cordoba CF will try to take advantage of its dangerous counter attacks. I expect a similar match which Xerez CD played against Recreativo Huelva (1-1) at home. They had plenty of problems to create chances and I think Coach Lopez will line up two strikers (Jose Mari and Bermejo), because this is the system which he likes more. I strongly think he is wrong because the team loses fluidity in the creative options. I like much more when Xerez CD plays with 5 midfielders. I think to know Coach Lopez and he will line up Jose Mari and Bermejo together this weekend and that fact won’t help to open Cordoba CF’s strong defensive system. Besides, Cordoba CF is playing better on offensive skills this season and they are finding the road to goal easier than previous years. Oriol, Charles and Callejon can damage Xerez CD’s wing defenders because Cordoba’s offensive players are fast and they have great mobility. I think this is a great opportunity to bet on that high line for Spanish Segunda in a Regional Derby. I consider that Asian Handicap line (+0.75) an excellent option to invest my medium stake and I don’t think Xerez CD can cover the whole handicap winning by at least two goals. So, in the worst case I think I would lose the half stake.

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Prediction:

Tip: 2 AH (+0.75)
Odd: 1.93
Bookie: Bet365
Stake: 7 /10
Tipster: Kather

 

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